Previsione della comunità attuale
Sì 95.6%
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48
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 minuti fa
18 feb 22, 21:12 UTC1 gen 00, 05:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Robin Hanson win the Nobel Prize for Economics before his death?
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KalshiRegole
On October 3rd 2021, Robin Hanson tweeted (https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1444765968987824140),
- > OK, so to summarize a proposal: I'd bet my $1K to your $9K (both increased by S&P500 scale factor) that when US labor participation rate < 10%, em-like automation will contribute more to GDP than AGI-like.
- And we commit our descendants to the bet.
- > I agree to this bet.
- This question resolves to YES if either Robin Hanson concedes the bet to me, or it is clear that I have won, even in the absence of a clear concession by Robin Hanson.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.