Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?
One-OffBusiness & Corporate9aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 77.8%
Previsori
25
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto2 ott 25, 16:20 UTC2 ott 35, 16:19 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if anyone reports, and Robin Hanson does not contradict within 7 days, that they requested to talk to Robin Hanson about prediction markets, and got turned down.
- Resolves NO if this does not happen after 10 years.
- Update 2025-10-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - 7-day window starts after notification: The 7 days begin once Robin Hanson is notified of the report; if he does not contradict within that period, it counts.
- Obvious abuse/false reports may be ignored: The creator may use discretion to disregard clearly dishonest or spammy repeated claims.
- Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on what counts as "turned down": A request to talk about prediction markets that is declined because the requester primarily wants to discuss their own grand theory (rather than genuinely discuss prediction markets) does NOT count as being "turned down" for purposes of this market's resolution.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 78% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets??
- Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 ottobre 2035.
- Come viene liquidato Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if anyone reports, and Robin Hanson does not contradict within 7 days, that they requested to talk to Robin Hanson about prediction markets, and got turned down.