Previsione della comunità attuale
No 54.5%
Previsori
4
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto6 gen 25, 17:36 UTC2 gen 29, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a Korean win a Nobel Prize in one of the science categories in 2025 or 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a fourth Korean Nobel Prize winner in 2026? Diaspora counts.
Manifold MarketsWill Andrew G York win the Dickson Prize in Science?
Manifold MarketsNobel Prize in Literature: 2026
KalshiNobel Prize in Economics 2026
KalshiBallon d'Or Winner 2026
PolymarketRegole
Korean-American or other Korean diaspora counts.
- See here for base rate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Korean_Nobel_laureates_and_nominees
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+11.2pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-33.9pt55%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 227,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 95,3K €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.4pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 109,1K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 8K €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt46.1%
- Above 1+20.0pt38.5%
- Above 2-6.0pt7.7%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a Korean win a Nobel Prize in one of the science categories from 2025-2028 inclusive??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 55% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a Korean win a Nobel Prize in one of the science categories from 2025-2028 inclusive??
- Will a Korean win a Nobel Prize in one of the science categories from 2025-2028 inclusive? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Will a Korean win a Nobel Prize in one of the science categories from 2025-2028 inclusive??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Korean-American or other Korean diaspora counts.