Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeScores at least 40% on Terminal Bench Science 98.9%+41.6ptIn testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori
26
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+48.9 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 minuti fa
3 set 26, 1:542 ott 26, 22:59
Trend
Regole
All benchmarks (except for Artificial Analysis and Frontier Math Open Problems) will resolve according to what OpenAI claims Astra scores on them.
- In Lieu of that, I will look to third-party benchmarking, prioritizing the benchmark's official leaderboard (like https://www.terminal-bench-science.ai/ for terminal bench science)
- [link preview]
Mercati aperti
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- October 31+0.9pt100%
- September 30+0.9pt100%
- September 15+1.1pt99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 593,1K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-5.1pt58.3%
- ChatGPT+7.0pt24.1%
- Grok+1.0pt7.4%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 8,8 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+14.9pt20.6%
- September 5+14.9pt15.7%
- September 6+13.2pt13.7%
+27 altri esiti
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+5.8pt100%
- November 30,+3.7pt100%
- December 31,+3.7pt100%
+10 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7K €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-13.0pt71.2%
- ChatGPT+8.0pt20.2%
- Gemini2.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 159,7K €
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Which companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- AI capability growth this year?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- When will any company achieve AGI?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per OpenAI Astra Prop Bets?
- Manifold Markets quota Scores at least 40% on Terminal Bench Science al 99% al 4 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve OpenAI Astra Prop Bets?
- OpenAI Astra Prop Bets dovrebbe risolversi il 2 ottobre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato OpenAI Astra Prop Bets?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: All benchmarks (except for Artificial Analysis and Frontier Math Open Problems) will resolve according to what OpenAI claims Astra scores on them.