KalshiChiusoVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiestoDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoQuesto mercato si è risolto: Before Sep 18, 2026 (99%)
Risolto: 7 set 2026, 15:43
Risoluzione verificata dal provider
CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.
Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 7 set 2026, 15:05 UTC · criterio pm-quality-3
Cronologia delle Probabilità
Before Aug 14, 20262%
Before Oct 16, 202699%
Before Sep 18, 202699%
Before Dec 1, 202699%
Before Nov 1, 202699%
Before Sep 18, 2026Vinta
Before Oct 1, 2026Persa
Before Oct 16, 2026Persa
Before Nov 1, 2026Persa
Before Dec 1, 2026Persa
Before Aug 14, 2026Persa
Before Aug 21, 2026Persa
Before Sep 1, 2026Persa
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
Regole archiviate a livello di evento. I termini esatti di ciascun esito non sono più disponibili.
If OpenAI releases Astra the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:OpenAI
- Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
- On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," an internal model described by OpenAI as its next major frontier system, citing results including the resolution of ten previously open mathematics problems - https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/
- Qualifying Release: The Payout Criterion is satisfied if OpenAI releases a model that either (a) is publicly named "Astra" (including numbered, lettered, or suffixed variants such as "Astra 1," "Astra 6," or "GPT-6 Astra"), or (b) is confirmed by OpenAI, or by a consensus of credible reporting, to share the same underlying model — including the same base architecture, weights, or training run — as the model referenced in OpenAI's August 1, 2026 disclosure, regardless of the commercial name, safety configuration, or access tier under which it is ultimately released.
- A separately-branded release that is derived from or built on the same underlying model as the disclosed Astra model satisfies this clause even if OpenAI markets it as a distinct product (e.g., a safety-restricted variant or a differently-priced tier), provided the shared underlying model is confirmed by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.