Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 79.3%
Previsori
36
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto28 mag 23, 09:50 UTC1 gen 01, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030?
Manifold MarketsIs the Riemann hypothesis correct?
Manifold MarketsHow will the universe end?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves once 90% of cosmologists and theoretical physicists agree one way or the other, according to multiple reputable surveys taken at least 70 years after market creation.
- So the market must remain open for at least 70 years (until May 28, 2093) to allow time for the idea to be considered thoroughly.
- After this, the market resolves as soon as at least 90% expert consensus is reached on the matter according to two or more independent surveys.
- The market does not resolve if some reputable surveys say 90% of experts think YES and some say that 90% think NO simultaneously (i.e., the survey findings have to come to the same conclusions on what the consensus is).
- It will only resolve once all up-to-date surveys agree on the consensus.
- Some info on the mathematical universe hypothesis can be found here.
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 226,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 125,2K €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 108,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 altri esiti
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Is Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 79% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Is Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct??
- Is Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2501.
- Come viene liquidato Is Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves once 90% of cosmologists and theoretical physicists agree one way or the other, according to multiple reputable surveys taken at least 70 years after market creation.