Previsione della comunità attuale
It won't, because <insert engineering scheme here> 43%In testa tra 11 esiti
Previsori
24
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto29 set 22, 15:30 UTC1 gen 00, 05:00 UTC
Trend
0.1%
0%
0%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030?
Manifold MarketsDoes the universe rotate?
Manifold MarketsIs Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRegole
Resolves once there's a strong scientific consensus on the answer, or a consensus that we can't know the answer until it happens.
- In the latter case, I'll resolve with equal probability to all the options that haven't been ruled out.
- Duplicate answers will be ignored, only the first to be submitted counts.
- Catch-all answers are ignored, I'll resolve to a more specific one.
Mercati aperti
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume totale
- 57,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume totale
- 817,9K €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per How will the universe end??
- Manifold Markets quota It won't, because <insert engineering scheme here> al 43% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve How will the universe end??
- How will the universe end? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2200.
- Come viene liquidato How will the universe end??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves once there's a strong scientific consensus on the answer, or a consensus that we can't know the answer until it happens.