Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2027 35.9%In testa tra 6 esiti
Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+4.4 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 49 minuti fa
In ritardo12 set 25, 21:00 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Trend
0.5%
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
This market asks when the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will determine the next US recession began.
- The NBER is the official arbiter of US business cycles and typically announces recession start dates months after they actually begin.
- This market will resolve to the option that corresponds to when the NBER declares the recession started, not when they make the announcement.
- Resolution will be based on official NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee announcements: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
Mercati aperti
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 89,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 541,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 334,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8K €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7K €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume totale
- 612,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9K €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume totale
- 2,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3K €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per In what year will the next US recession begin??
- Manifold Markets quota 2027 al 36% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve In what year will the next US recession begin??
- In what year will the next US recession begin? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.
- Come viene liquidato In what year will the next US recession begin??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market asks when the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will determine the next US recession began.