In what year will the next US recession begin?

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Quali sono le probabilità attuali per In what year will the next US recession begin??

Manifold Markets quota 2027 al 47% al 25 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve In what year will the next US recession begin??

In what year will the next US recession begin? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.

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Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market asks when the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will determine the next US recession began.

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KALSHI

October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP

• U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k16%
• U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k+3.0pt6.5%
• U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 100k or above5%

+9 altri esiti

Volume totale

18,3K €

Volume 24h

17,1K €

KALSHI

Mexico unemployment rate in October

• Above 2.7%48%
• Above 2.6%52.5%
• Above 2.8%55%

KALSHI

CPI YoY in December

• Above 3.0%96.5%
• Above 3.1%95.5%
• Above 3.3%94.5%

KALSHI

Recession in 2027?

• No79.5%
• Yes-1.0pt20.5%

Volume totale

663,5K €

Volume 24h

6,1K €

KALSHI

South Africa unemployment rate in Q3

• Above 31.0%94.5%
• Above 31.5%91%
• Above 32.0%79.5%

KALSHI

Core CPI YoY in December

• Above 2.1%98.5%
• Above 2.2%96.5%
• Above 2.3%95.5%

• CPI in December
• CPI in October
• US recession by end of 2026?
• China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026?
• US economic state at the end of 2026?
• US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026
• CPI YoY in November
• China Annual GDP Growth 2026
• US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
• Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)
• China unemployment rate in October
• UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?