KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiNessuna quotazione live
Dati al 9 set 2026, 08:52 UTC · criterio pm-quality-3
Probabilità implicita attuale
Q2 2025 3%In testa tra 6 esiti
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
154,2K €
Alta liquiditàSpread
2.7 pt
Spread moderatoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 minuti fa
19 mar 25, 14:00 UTC31 dic 26, 15:00 UTC
Trend
0%
0%
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:NBER
- Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight).
- For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).
Mercati aperti
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 90,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 Mln €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 358,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 35,6K €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 554,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 33,8K €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Volume totale
- 314,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 11K €
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 17,7K €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 76K €
- Volume 24h
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will the next US recession start??
- Kalshi quota Q2 2025 al 3% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will the next US recession start??
- When will the next US recession start? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato When will the next US recession start??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.