PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 98%+0.3pt
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
815,2 €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
2.1% / 2.4%
Écart
0.3 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
5
Variation 7j
-0.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
13 nov. 25, 21:18 UTC29 janv. 27, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
Futuur[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%?
Manifold MarketsNegative growth in Brazil's GDP in any quarter of 2026?
FutuurJapan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
PolymarketGDP growth in 2026
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
- The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
- Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution.
- Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Marchés ouverts
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 541,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 334,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7 k €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume total
- 612,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9 k €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 2,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3 k €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Negative GDP growth in 2026? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 98% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Negative GDP growth in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Negative GDP growth in 2026? doit être résolu le 29 janvier 2027.
- Comment Negative GDP growth in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0.