Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
ÉconomieQuarterly2mois
FutuurVérifier la disponibilitéDonnées de résolution vérifiéesProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 91%
Non 91%Qualité du marché
33 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
1,1 k €
Faible liquiditéTraders
4
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0
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Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
This market predicts whether the United States will report negative real GDP growth in at least one of the first three quarters of 2026 (Q1 2026, Q2 2026, or Q3 2026).
- If the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports a seasonally adjusted, annualized real GDP growth rate of less than 0% for any of Q1 2026, Q2 2026, or Q3 2026 — based on the BEA's third (final) estimate for that quarter, or the most recent published estimate available by December 31, 2026 23:59:59 UTC — this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The Primary Designated Source is the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Gross Domestic Product release.
- Resolution uses the third estimate (final) where available, otherwise the most recent BEA estimate for the quarter as of December 31, 2026 23:59:59 UTC.
- A consensus of credible reporting (Reuters, AP, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg) may confirm the BEA figures.