JavaScript est désactivé. La navigation principale et les pages éditoriales restent disponibles, mais les widgets de marché en direct, les graphiques, la recherche et les fonctions de personnalisation peuvent être limités.

Will there be scientific consensus of the existence of silicon based forms of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2060?

One-OffScience Space

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 88.3%

Prévisionnistes

13

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 17 heures

Obsolète

2 avr. 24, 18:08 UTC1 janv. 61, 04:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Marchés Associés

Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.

In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine?

Manifold Markets

In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?

Manifold Markets

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Manifold Markets

Will Massachusetts scientific R&D jobs rise YoY?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Règles

Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry

The element silicon has been much discussed as a hypothetical alternative to carbon.
Silicon is in the same group as carbon on the periodic table and, like carbon, it is tetravalent.
Hypothetical alternatives to water include ammonia, which, like water, is a polar molecule, and cosmically abundant; and non-polar hydrocarbon solvents such as methane and ethane, which are known to exist in liquid form on the surface of Titan.

Marchés ouverts

When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?

Before 2035+10.0pt85%
Before 2030+7.0pt83%
Before 2029+17.9pt50%

+2 résultats de plus

Volume total: 211 k €
Volume 24h: 110,5 k €

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

December 31+0.1pt4%
September 30+0.1pt1%
April 300%

+3 résultats de plus

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
Before 202812%
Before 20275%

+5 résultats de plus

Volume total: 28,6 M €
Volume 24h: 21,3 k €

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

No96%
Yes+1.9pt4%

Volume total: 1,6 M €
Volume 24h: 5,2 k €

When will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?

before October+64.0pt98%
before 2027+22.0pt98%
before December+30.0pt98%

+3 résultats de plus

When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?

Before 2035+4.0pt49%
Before 2030+18.0pt39%
Before 2032-9.0pt39%

+1 résultats de plus

Volume total

Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be scientific consensus of the existence of silicon based forms of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2060? ?: Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 8 septembre 2026.
Quand Will there be scientific consensus of the existence of silicon based forms of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2060? sera-t-il résolu ?: Will there be scientific consensus of the existence of silicon based forms of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2060? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2061.
Comment Will there be scientific consensus of the existence of silicon based forms of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2060? est-il réglé ?: Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry

Signaler un problème de données sur ce marché