Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 57.5%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète10 juil. 23, 03:56 UTC31 déc. 00, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Fanzor be used to genetically edit the cells of *any human* by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
In a literal sense
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+11.2pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-33.9pt55%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 227,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 95,3 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.4pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 109,1 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 8 k €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt46.1%
- Above 1+20.0pt38.5%
- Above 2-6.0pt7.7%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be genetically engineered catgirls by 2100? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 58% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be genetically engineered catgirls by 2100? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be genetically engineered catgirls by 2100? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2100.
- Comment Will there be genetically engineered catgirls by 2100? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : In a literal sense