Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 76.5%
Prévisionnistes
102
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète10 nov. 22, 16:57 UTC1 janv. 38, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?
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KalshiWill the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
KalshiWorld Cup 2026: South Korea vs. United States
KalshiRègles
Resolves to YES if it becomes illegal to develop certain forms of AI in all US states.
- It must either be a ban at the federal level or a ban that every state independently enacts.
- Bans that attempt to prevent specific outcomes don't count; the ban must be targeted towards general capabilities research.
- For example, "no neural networks with over 100 billion parameters", or "no recurrent neural networks" would resolve this market to YES. "No AI-generated pornography" or "no AI designed to operate a military drone" would not be sufficient to resolve this to YES.
- In essence, I want this market to resolve YES if it seems the government recognizes the problems with having unaligned near-or-above-human-level AIs running around, and tries via regulation to prevent the existance of AIs above a certain level of intelligence.
- I'm open to a better operationalization of this concept if one is suggested.
Marchés ouverts
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+0.5pt73%
- September 18+1.0pt69%
- September 11+5.5pt66%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 558,1 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.5pt75%
- New People (NL)-1.6pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt50%
- October 3128.8%
- September 30-1.0pt11.9%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt30%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-4.0pt22%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt10%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 3110%
- November 30-1.5pt5%
- October 31-1.2pt3%
+6 résultats de plus
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 77% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2038.
- Comment Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves to YES if it becomes illegal to develop certain forms of AI in all US states.