Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80.4%
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3
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binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète7 avr. 26, 11:20 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRègles
Przemek Chojecki used a "multi-agent harness" to generate an attempt at a FrontierMath Open Problem.
- Reception was mixed.
- This resolves YES iff by EOY, Paolo Cascini marks the problem as settled and credits ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf.
- The point of this market is that betting that your approach works shows that your submission is serious, rewards you iff your approach works, and rewards potential counterparties for investigating your approach.