Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 74.1%
Prévisionnistes
49
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète19 mars 26, 02:05 UTC31 mai 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Could AI research see a shift in focus soon?
Manifold MarketsWill much AI research be nationalized by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
KalshiBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketRègles
I have a $1000 bet with Geby Jaff, founder of Archivara, on this market.
- I am on the NO side, Geby is on the YES side.
- I will trade this market, but I will resolve according to the votes of the judges.
- The loser of the bet agrees to pay the winner $1000.
- Resolution criteria: A panel of 3 pre-agreed judges reviews the top 20 AI research papers published in May 2027.
- For each paper, judges assess: "Was the research primarily conducted by giving an AI agent a single high-level research goal (e.g. 'Can narrow finetuning produce broadly misaligned LLMs?'), after which the agent autonomously executed the full pipeline: literature review, hypothesis formation, experiment design, code implementation, running experiments, debugging, analyzing results, and writing up findings, with the human only stepping in to approve, reject, or minimally redirect at natural checkpoints?"
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 102,1 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 résultats de plus
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 44,4 k €
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 74% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027? doit être résolu le 31 mai 2027.
- Comment Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I have a $1000 bet with Geby Jaff, founder of Archivara, on this market.