Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
0.4% (24h)One-OffMiddle East5mo
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesGrossièrement calibréProbabilité implicite actuelleOui 7%+0.4%
Qualite du marche
91 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
1,1 k €
Liquidité
182,6 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
6.8% / 6.9%
Spread
1.5%
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 minutes
8 janv. 26, 15:001 janv. 27, 4:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Yes7%
Comparer les plateformes· No
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiCette pageMeilleur global | Élevée | 93% | +86pt | 1,1 k € | 182,6 k € | il y a 17 minutes | |
 Polymarket92% de correspondance · auto | Moyenne | 95% | +88pt | 187,6 € | 33 k € | il y a 17 minutes | Ouvrir → |
Également disponible sur Polymarket
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
5mo
95%
5%
56 • Qualité moyenneSpread largeLiquidité élevéeProche de la résolution
Volume total543,8 k €
Volume 24h187,6 €
POLYMARKETRègles
If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For purposes of this Contract, the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi when the government of the United States takes official action acknowledging Reza Pahlavi specifically as the rightful or legitimate leader of Iran.
- Recognition must be explicit regarding Reza Pahlavi as an individual, not merely recognition of Iran as a state or recognition of whatever government happens to be in power.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Grosses transactions
$1.7k93.6%KALSHINo-4 j
KALSHINo-4 j$6.8k94.5%KALSHINo-4 j
KALSHINo-4 jTendance du volume
$1.3k2 juil.25j de données26 juil.
Marchés Associés
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
2,4 M €July 18: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
744,1 k €August 31: 62%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
528,3 k €Oui: 16%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
250,1 k €Before Sep 1, 2026: 11%KALSHI
KALSHI
What will Benjamin Netanyahu say during Sunday Morning Futures?
103,7 k €Event does not qualify: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/20 - 7/26)
35,6 k €Above 60: 7%KALSHI
KALSHIActifs dans ces sujets
Actualités Associées
Polymarket odds: Eizenkot jumps to 46% to lead Israel PM raceBlockchain.News
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsPolymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.NewsPolymarket sees 55.5% odds for Iran blockade end by Aug. 31 after Trump jabBlockchain.News
US freezes $131M in Iran-linked crypto as Middle East tensions riseCointelegraphRègles
If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For purposes of this Contract, the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi when the government of the United States takes official action acknowledging Reza Pahlavi specifically as the rightful or legitimate leader of Iran.
- Recognition must be explicit regarding Reza Pahlavi as an individual, not merely recognition of Iran as a state or recognition of whatever government happens to be in power.