Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 97.3%
Prévisionnistes
46
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 heures
Obsolète11 janv. 26, 02:27 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
PolymarketWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
KalshiWill Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
KalshiWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
PolymarketWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by which date?
PolymarketWill the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Reza Pahlavi physically enters Iran at any point between now and 11:59PM Iran Standard Time December 31, 2026.
- Resolution requires credible reporting from major news outlets confirming his entry into Iranian territory.
- The market resolves NO if he does not enter Iran by the end of 2026.
- Reza Pahlavi, 65, has lived in exile in the United States for almost five decades, having left Iran in 1978 before the Islamic Revolution.
- Beginning on 28 December 2025, mass demonstrations erupted across Iran amid a deepening economic crisis and a general dissatisfaction with the Islamic Republic government, evolving into the largest uprising since the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests, and potentially the largest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.