Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91.6%
Prévisionnistes
141
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 minutes
9 juin 25, 21:24 UTC1 févr. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 months of his inauguration?
Manifold MarketsThe End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026
Manifold MarketsUkraine war ends in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf NATO troops fight in the Ukraine war, will Russia use a nuclear weapon?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This should capture common sense intuitions around "war ends before the end of 2026".
- Resolves Yes if a formal peace agreement or armistice between Russia and Ukraine is signed before the end of 2026, and fighting between the major parties stops with no major flare-ups (>100 deaths) until the later of: the end of 2026, OR one month after it's signed.
- Temporary ceasefires that are later broken do not resolve yes.
- Temporary ceasefires that followed by a peace treaty do count, even if the treaty is signed after the end of '26, so long as fighting doesn't restart in the interim.
- A full agreement before the end of 2026, followed by a new war starting after 2026 still resolves Yes.
- Note: this means an agreement signed very late in 2026 must remain in effect for at least one month into 2027 for the market to resolve Yes.