Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore Jan 2027 13.6%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-4.6 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète30 janv. 26, 23:22 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 months of his inauguration?
Manifold MarketsUkraine war ends in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a formal ceasefire agreement or peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine is signed and takes effect by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the governments of Russia, Ukraine, or the United States, or reporting from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.) confirming the agreement's existence and implementation.
- The agreement must include a cessation of active hostilities.
- Technical or temporary pauses in fighting do not qualify.
- If a ceasefire is signed but subsequently violated before year-end, the market still resolves YES if the agreement was formally executed.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Before Jan 2027 à 14% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?
- The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026 doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria