Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.3%
Prévisionnistes
42
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète17 nov. 25, 01:59 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsRusso-Ukrainian War ends officially by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUkraine damages Kremlin with drone or missile before Russia-Ukraine war ends?
Manifold MarketsWill the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends?
KalshiWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the Ukraine-Russia war ends by December 31, 2026. "War ends" is defined as a formal ceasefire agreement, peace treaty, or other official cessation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine that is recognized by both governments and results in a sustained halt to major combat operations for at least 30 consecutive days.
- The market resolves NO if active combat continues beyond December 31, 2026, or if any ceasefire/agreement breaks down before the 30-day threshold is met.
- As of September 2025, Russia's war in Ukraine has dragged on for three and a half years, with no end in sight despite nine months of efforts by the United States to end the fighting.
- Neither round of talks achieved a breakthrough, although agreement was reached on the exchange of prisoners of war and Ukraine and Russia have committed to continue dialogue.
- Russia's president Vladimir Putin seeks recognition of all occupied land as Russian and guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO, while Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeks a full withdrawal of Russian troops and security guarantees to prevent further Russian aggression.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Ukraine war ends in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 87% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Ukraine war ends in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Ukraine war ends in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Ukraine war ends in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria