Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 93.7%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 minutes
5 oct. 26, 10:32 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho wins the US presidential election in 2024? / Will Russia invade a NATO member before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade another country by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia invade a NATO country by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2030 (12:00 AM UTC), Russian military forces launch a physical invasion of the sovereign land territory of the United Kingdom (Great Britain and Northern Ireland).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- For the purposes of this market, an "invasion" is defined as:
- The entry of Russian armed forces (regular land, sea, or air combat troops) onto UK land territory with hostile intent, for combat, or for the purpose of military occupation.
- The event must be officially recognized or reported as an invasion, armed incursion, or hostile military landing on UK soil by the UK Government, the United Nations, or at least three major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, Bloomberg).
