Who wins the US presidential election in 2024? / Will Russia invade a NATO member before 2030?
PolitiqueOne-OffGéopolitiqueRussie / UkraineÉlectionPolitique américaineEurope3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleTrump / Russia does not invade 80.8%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
71
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète17 déc. 23, 23:08 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade a NATO country by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade Britain before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States take military action against any other NATO member in 2026?
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Robinhood (Rothera)Règles
Political commentators have repeatedly suggested that if Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, he would make the US military not help if Russia were to invade a NATO member.
- Will that occur?
- Resolves to either Trump/Not Trump for the 2024 presidential election winner, based on who is inaugurated in January 2025.
- Resolves based on Russia seriously invading a NATO member.
- This should be at least on the scale of the 2014 Crimean war, not just a missile accidentally being shot or one plane passing over borders.
- Update 2025-03-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Invasion Scale Clarification:
