Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 77%
Prévisionnistes
127
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète26 juin 23, 09:08 UTC31 déc. 99, 15:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will humanity detect evidence of an extraterrestrial intelligence before the year 2100?
Manifold MarketsHas NASA's Perseverance rover found traces of extraterrestrial life ?
Manifold MarketsWill a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
This question resolves YES if conclusive evidence is found of any biological life having originated from any other planet.
- For instance, if dinosaurs or tardigrades are conclusively discovered to have originated from Mars, this question resolves YES.
- If alien bacterial life is found on other planets conclusively proven not to have originated from Earth, this resolves YES.
- If by 2100, none of these criteria have been fulfilled, this resolves NO.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 226,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 125,2 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 108,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 77% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2099.
- Comment Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This question resolves YES if conclusive evidence is found of any biological life having originated from any other planet.