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Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027?

One-OffScience3mois

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 98%

Prévisionnistes

47

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 10 heures

Obsolète

12 août 23, 05:27 UTC2 janv. 27, 05:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Marchés Associés

Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.

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Règles

Resolves NO on January 1, 2027 if no such proof has yet been found.

Resolves YES if such a proof is found before then.
This would obviously likely be by an AI, but proofs from human mathematicians also count.
I wanted a version of this question that resolves closer to within my apocalypse timeline, so I'll actually be forced to pay up [by my reckoning] if I'm wrong and Fermat goofed or was messing with us.
I'll also be forced to pay up if people just don't turn a lot of compute toward answering this question, but I think this setup gives overall better incentives to short-timeline people.

Marchés ouverts

When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?

Before 2035+10.0pt85%
Before 2030+7.0pt83%
Before 2029+17.9pt50%

+2 résultats de plus

Volume total: 211 k €
Volume 24h: 110,5 k €

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December 31+0.1pt4%
September 30+0.1pt1%
April 300%

+3 résultats de plus

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Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
Before 202812%
Before 20275%

+5 résultats de plus

Volume total: 28,6 M €
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No96%
Yes+1.9pt4%

Volume total: 1,6 M €
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Before 2035+4.0pt49%
Before 2030+18.0pt39%
Before 2032-9.0pt39%

+1 résultats de plus

Volume total

Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027? ?: Manifold Markets cote No à 98% au 8 septembre 2026.
Quand Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?: Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
Comment Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027? est-il réglé ?: Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves NO on January 1, 2027 if no such proof has yet been found.

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