Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 68.5%
Prévisionnistes
148
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète28 déc. 22, 00:30 UTC22 févr. 22, 21:22 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill P vs NP be resolved by 2043?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
resolves YES when P vs NP is resolved or NO when man lands on Mars, whichever comes first
- resolution of P vs NP is a proof or disproof of P≠NP accepted by the mathematical community
- man lands on Mars when a live human body is separated from the Mars surface only by like a solid thing, such as a spaceship or spacesuit (edit: or both of course, but touching each other)
- Close date updated to 2222-02-22 10:22 pm
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211 k €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 69% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars? doit être résolu le 22 février 2222.
- Comment Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : resolves YES when P vs NP is resolved or NO when man lands on Mars, whichever comes first