Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91.7%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
1 janv. 26, 22:58 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Another NATO article 4 by which date?
PolymarketNATO article 5 before 2027?
PolymarketWhat is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5?
Manifold MarketsWill Article 7 of the EU be employed against Hungary before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRègles
Will the North Atlantic Counsel (NAC) decide before the end of 2026 that an attack on one of the NATO partners fulfilled the criteria to initiate Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty? This would mean that all NATO partners will have the obligation to collectively defend the attacked NATO partner.
- Market will resolve yes if the NAC publicly states that the NATO will instigate article 5, regardless of actual action undertaken by NATO partners.
- Market will resolve no if no statement has been made before the end of 2026
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will NATO article 5 be instigated before the end of 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will NATO article 5 be instigated before the end of 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will NATO article 5 be instigated before the end of 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will NATO article 5 be instigated before the end of 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Will the North Atlantic Counsel (NAC) decide before the end of 2026 that an attack on one of the NATO partners fulfilled the criteria to initiate Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty? This would mean that all NATO partners will have the obligation to collectively defend the attacked NATO partner.