Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
---NO ARTICLE 5 BEFORE 2030--- 45.8%En tête parmi 14 options
---NO ARTICLE 5 BEFORE 2030--- 45.8%Prévisionnistes
40
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète15 nov. 22, 15:48 UTC31 déc. 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What is the NEXT country to invoke NATO Article 4?
Manifold MarketsWill any other NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsNATO article 5 before 2027?
PolymarketAnother NATO article 4 by which date?
PolymarketWill NATO article 5 be instigated before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?
Manifold MarketsRègles
market for Article 4:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/kolotom99/what-is-the-next-country-to-invoke-82682cdecb35)Update 2026-08-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The trigger is defined as an official action.
- If multiple countries trigger Article 5 at the same time, the market will split resolve between them.