Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030?
One-OffScience3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 89.2%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète9 déc. 24, 23:25 UTC2 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if a super-majority (2/3rds) of cosmologists and / or theoretical physicists agree one way or the other, according to a reputable survey, on or before the year 2030.
- If no "reputable" survey exists by the end date, then the market will resolve as NO.
- Reputable surveys have at least 100 responses and are performed by a reputable organization.
- "A version" of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis is defined as any "theory of everything" where "the universe is a mathematical object in and of itself".
- Some info on the mathematical universe hypothesis can be found here.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 résultats de plus
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POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
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- Before 202812%
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+5 résultats de plus
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- 28,6 M €
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- before October+64.0pt98%
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KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 résultats de plus
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 89% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if a super-majority (2/3rds) of cosmologists and / or theoretical physicists agree one way or the other, according to a reputable survey, on or before the year 2030.