Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year?

Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year? ?

Manifold Markets cote 2%+ (Resolves start of 2027) à 69.6% au 31 octobre 2026.

Quand Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year? sera-t-il résolu ?

Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2100.

Comment Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year? est-il réglé ?

Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves annually to Metaculus' community prediction.

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POLYMARKET

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

• December 31+0.1pt3%
• October 310%

+5 résultats de plus

Volume total

67,9 M €

Volume 24h

108,5 k €

KALSHI

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

• Before Jan 20, 202923.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2028+1.0pt15.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2027-0.4pt4.7%

POLYMARKET

Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?

• 4,189.3 or 4,189.4-1.5pt83%
• Below 4,189.3+0.9pt6%
• 4,189.5 or 4,189.6-3.0pt3%

+1 résultats de plus

KALSHI

How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?

• Above 1+5.0pt16.5%
• Above 2-1.0pt3.5%
• Above 3-1.0pt

POLYMARKET

Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by which date?

• June 30-15.5pt27%
• December 315%

Volume total

34,2 k €

Volume 24h

2,4 k €

KALSHI

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

• Yes+2.3pt76.5%
• No23.6%

Volume total

403,8 k €

Volume 24h

2,2 k €

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