Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 99%
Prévisionnistes
95
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète12 juil. 23, 17:10 UTC31 déc. 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When (if ever) will AI cause human extinction?
Manifold MarketsWill @levifinkelstein cause human extinction by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Google DeepMind cause human extinction in the next 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill Inflection.ai cause human extinction in the next 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
@Mira is developing powerful AI systems which may be powerful enough to cause human extinction, by misuse or by misalignment.
- Will @Mira cause human extinction by 2030?
- The market will resolve as YES if:
- @Mira 's actions directly lead to the extinction of humanity by the end of 2030.
- The market will resolve as NO if any of:
- Human extinction is caused by another entity or circumstance before 2030.
