Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 93.8%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard22 juin 26, 18:22 UTC31 déc. 59, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the United Kingdom join the EU?
KalshiHow many of the negotiating chapters required to join the EU will Montenegro have closed at the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Armenia join the EU by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Armenia join the EU by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
KalshiRègles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Maine, or a clear successor political entity substantially corresponding to present-day Maine, becomes part of the European Union or a clear successor, continuation, or transformed version of the European Union before January 1st 2060.
- For this market, “Maine” may include the current U.S. state of Maine, an independent Maine, a renamed or reorganized polity substantially covering Maine, or Maine as part of another sovereign country or political union.
- Minor border changes, changes in internal administrative status, or changes in name should not prevent a YES resolution if the territory and population of present-day Maine are clearly included.
- “The European Union” may include the EU as it exists today, or a substantially continuous successor or transformed entity, including but not limited to a European federation, confederation, empire, or other supranational European polity that is broadly recognized as the legal or political continuation of the EU.
- This market resolves YES if Maine is meaningfully and formally included within that entity before the deadline, whether through accession, federation, annexation, constitutional transformation, treaty, merger, or another legally effective process.
- Mere applications, negotiations, non-binding referendums, political statements, cultural association, trade agreements, observer status, or informal alignment are not sufficient.
Marchés ouverts
Trade Policy
POLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 3156%
- October 31+0.5pt31.2%
- September 30+4.0pt12.8%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 106,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6,4 k €
KALSHISouth Carolina ports total container volume in 2026
- Above 2.2 million TEUs94%
- Above 2.3 million TEUs84%
- Above 2.4 million TEUs56%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 13,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 4,7 k €
KALSHIWhat will John Ternus say during his Apple Keynote?
- Fold / Folding / Foldable+10.0pt88%
- Ultra+5.0pt87%
- Apple Intelligence83%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,7 k €
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30+1.0pt7%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
- Canadian aircraft+10.0pt34%
- Wind turbines23%
- Critical minerals-29.0pt11%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 25,3 k €
KALSHIWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- Yes-7.0pt70%
- No30%
- Volume total
- 1,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 683,1 €
- Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
- Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
- How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
- When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
- US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Will Trump formalize a 100% tariff on generic drugs before the midterms?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Maine join the EU before 2060? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 94% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Maine join the EU before 2060? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Maine join the EU before 2060? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2059.
- Comment Will Maine join the EU before 2060? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Maine, or a clear successor political entity substantially corresponding to present-day Maine, becomes part of the European Union or a clear successor, continuation, or transformed version of the European Union before January 1st 2060.