PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Oui 89%+0.5pt
Qualité du marché
75 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
368,6 €
Liquidité
43,3 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
89.2% / 89.3%
Écart
0.1 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
-1.6 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
29 mai 26, 13:14 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
KalshiWhich countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?
PolymarketWill Congress pass a resolution rejecting the U.S.–Saudi nuclear agreement by December 31?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. publish the text of its Saudi nuclear agreement by December 31?
Manifold MarketsUS x China Military clash before 2027?
PolymarketUS and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
- The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
- Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Marchés ouverts
Trade PolicyPOLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 31+8.0pt55.2%
- October 31+7.0pt32%
- September 30+2.0pt12.8%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 113,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 9,4 k €
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt28%
- October 31+0.5pt13%
- September 30-0.5pt6%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- Yes+18.0pt93%
- No7%
- Volume total
- 6,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 4,3 k €
KALSHIWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during RNC Midterm Convention?
- Trump (3+ times)91%
- Republican80%
- Inflation59%
+15 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,1 k €
KALSHIHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- $0 / No Acquisition+1.0pt83.3%
- $10 billion to $99 billion4.9%
- $300 billion to $599 billion3.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,4 M €
POLYMARKETTrump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
- October 31+2.0pt56%
- September 30-14.0pt9%
- September 15-0.1pt1%
+1 résultats de plus
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
- Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
- Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
- When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
- US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Sep 2026?
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour US x China tariff agreement by December 31? ?
- Polymarket cote Yes à 89% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand US x China tariff agreement by December 31? sera-t-il résolu ?
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment US x China tariff agreement by December 31? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Où US x China tariff agreement by December 31? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Limitless.