Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80.1%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète28 août 26, 13:35 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Armenia join the EU by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the United Kingdom join the EU?
KalshiWill Maine join the EU before 2060?
Manifold MarketsHow many of the negotiating chapters required to join the EU will Montenegro have closed at the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBreach in the ceasefire deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2026?
FutuurRègles
https://www.euronews.com/2026/08/25/armenia-announces-historic-intention-to-apply-for-eu-membership
- [link preview]
Marchés ouverts
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 55,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8 k €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Armenia join the EU by the end of 2029? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 80% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Armenia join the EU by the end of 2029? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Armenia join the EU by the end of 2029? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will Armenia join the EU by the end of 2029? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://www.euronews.com/2026/08/25/armenia-announces-historic-intention-to-apply-for-eu-membership