PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 99%+0.3pt
Qualite du marche
88 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
34,5 k €
Liquidité
214 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
1.4% / 1.5%
Spread
0.1 pt
Spread serréComments
0
Variation 7j
-0.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
29 juin 26, 23:5330 sept. 26, 0:00
Tendances
Règles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
- This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
- Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
- Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Référence CoinRithm 1% · 2 plateformes · bande de 3 pt