Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
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U.S.–Mexico interim agreement · —
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U.S.–Mexico interim agreement 35.5%En tête parmi 8 options
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12,2 k $US
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U.S.–Mexico interim agreementÉcart
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 33 minutes
23 juil. 26, 16:30 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
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Profondeur du marché · U.S.–Mexico interim agreement
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
If the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressThe VergeBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- This event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Règles de chaque résultat
- U.S.–Mexico interim agreement
- If the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- U.S.–Canada interim agreement
- If the United States and Canada reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trilateral revised deal
- If the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral agreement, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- U.S. withdrawal notice
- If the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Formal 16-year extension
- If the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Formal USMCA amendment
- If an amendment to USMCA enters into force under Article 34.3 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Canadian withdrawal notice
- If Canada provides the United States and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mexican withdrawal notice
- If Mexico provides the United States and Canada written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.