Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?
Trade PolicyOne-OffÉlectionGéopolitiqueLatin AmericaUS PoliticsPolitique2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 77.5%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète16 juin 26, 15:00 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, the United States under the presidential administration of Donald Trump officially annexes any portion of Brazilian territory or conducts unauthorized military action against or within Brazil.
- Specifically:
- Annexation is defined as the United States officially claiming sovereignty, annexing, or establishing a formal protectorate over any portion of Brazil's internationally recognized territory, codified by a U.S. executive order, presidential proclamation, federal law, or treaty signed by Donald Trump.
- Military Action is defined as a kinetic military operation (including but not limited to airstrikes, drone strikes, missile launches, naval blockades, or ground troop incursions) conducted by the United States Armed Forces within Brazil’s internationally recognized land borders, territorial waters, or airspace.
- To qualify, the military action must be directed against targets (including state forces, infrastructure, or local non-state actors/gangs) without the explicit consent or written invitation of the internationally recognized federal government of Brazil.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 78% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria