Will "Lightcone Commons" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffScience1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 88.4%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète23 juil. 26, 19:26 UTC1 févr. 28, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketRègles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Lightcone Commons is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
