Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 95.7%
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète24 août 26, 00:37 UTC24 févr. 27, 00:33 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the purported construction of a complex structure on S^6 by Levent Alpöge turn out to be correct?
Manifold MarketsWill a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
Tweet thread for context:
- [tweet]For this to resolve YES, the original proof does not need to be perfect.
- It is not uncommon for there to be minor (and easily fixable) mistakes in a long technical proof.
- The key question is whether they are "easily fixable".
- This can resolve NO as soon as the proof is demonstrated to be substantially incorrect and there has been a reasonable enough wait time to ensure that there isn't some "easy fix" to address the issue.
- Otherwise, I plan to resolve this YES if it has been 6 months after market creation and academic consensus appears to believe the proof.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211 k €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
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- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Levent's proof that S^6 admits a complex structure hold up? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 96% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Levent's proof that S^6 admits a complex structure hold up? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Levent's proof that S^6 admits a complex structure hold up? doit être résolu le 24 février 2027.
- Comment Will Levent's proof that S^6 admits a complex structure hold up? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Tweet thread for context: