Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 89.3%
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète14 nov. 23, 20:21 UTC1 janv. 35, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Elon Musk visit a country in the Middle East in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill America receive more tourists from the Middle East in 2026 than in 2025?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US-Russia proxy conflict expand beyond Ukraine and the Middle East by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by which date?
PolymarketIsrael military action against Lebanon on?
PolymarketRègles
Inspired by this article:
- https://en.majalla.com/node/302971/business-economy/lebanons-already-struggling-economy-cannot-survive-war-israel
- Resolves NO if, by the end of the current conflict, Lebanon either ceases to exist as a country, undergoes a significant revolution, or otherwise becomes unrecognizable in policy/government to its predecessor.
- For example:
- If Lebanon breaks into multiple different countries, this question resolves depending on whether Lebanon still exists as one of these countries.
- If a coup occurs, but the country doesn't change much as a result, this question resolves YES.