Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 17:55 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète14 nov. 23, 20:21 UTC1 janv. 35, 21:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will America receive more tourists from the Middle East in 2026 than in 2025?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US-Russia proxy conflict expand beyond Ukraine and the Middle East by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran sign a peace deal with the middle east countries
Manifold MarketsIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by which date?
PolymarketIsrael military action against Lebanon on?
PolymarketRègles
Inspired by this article:
- https://en.majalla.com/node/302971/business-economy/lebanons-already-struggling-economy-cannot-survive-war-israel
- Resolves NO if, by the end of the current conflict, Lebanon either ceases to exist as a country, undergoes a significant revolution, or otherwise becomes unrecognizable in policy/government to its predecessor.
- For example:
- If Lebanon breaks into multiple different countries, this question resolves depending on whether Lebanon still exists as one of these countries.
- If a coup occurs, but the country doesn't change much as a result, this question resolves YES.