Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 24 oct. 2026, 01:51 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 96.5%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard31 déc. 25, 00:31 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise?
Manifold MarketsWill USA change Iran regime
Manifold MarketsIf Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
PolymarketIf Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
LimitlessRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran.
- This includes scenarios in which the regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern, and a fundamentally different system replaces it.
- Qualifying scenarios may include:
- Military coup
- Voluntary abdication of power
- Establishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority