Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 94.7%
Prévisionnistes
1,960
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
31 déc. 25, 00:31 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise?
Manifold MarketsWill USA change Iran regime
Manifold MarketsIf Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
LimitlessWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
PolymarketWill the Iranian Regime fall before October?
MyriadRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran.
- This includes scenarios in which the regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern, and a fundamentally different system replaces it.
- Qualifying scenarios may include:
- Military coup
- Voluntary abdication of power
- Establishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Marchés ouverts
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.6pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 25,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 695 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Volume total
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Volume total
- 6,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 107,6 k €
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Volume total
- 1,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 104,5 k €
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Le régime iranien tombera-t-il en 2026 ? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Le régime iranien tombera-t-il en 2026 ? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Le régime iranien tombera-t-il en 2026 ? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Le régime iranien tombera-t-il en 2026 ? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran.
- Où Le régime iranien tombera-t-il en 2026 ? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Limitless, Manifold Markets, Polymarket.