If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?
US PoliticsOne-OffGéopolitiqueMiddle EastRussia / UkraineChina3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 85.5%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète2 janv. 26, 10:17 UTC2 janv. 27, 10:17 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Credible evidence of pre-arranged local support for Venezuela regime change (news media 2026)
Manifold MarketsWill Iran's regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
LimitlessRègles
Professor Jiang Xueqin has the Predictive History channel on YouTube:
- Geo-Strategy END: Psychohistory (The Science of Imagining the Future)
- I've extracted the most resolvable statements from this YouTube video:
- If the West Is Collapsing, What Comes Next in 2026? - Prof. Jiang Xueqin
- The questions will resolve YES if I see reports of this in relatively respectable media.
- I know this is a fuzzy resolution, but I'll do my best.
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 695,7 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume total
- 24,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7 k €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 291,3 k €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it? sera-t-il résolu ?
- If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
- Comment If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Professor Jiang Xueqin has the Predictive History channel on YouTube: