In which month(s) will there be at least 3 consecutive days with sirens in Israel caused by Iranian missiles?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffMoyen-Orient2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNovember 2026 43.4%En tête parmi 17 options
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+5.8 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète1 août 26, 18:37 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES for any month in which there are at least three consecutive calendar days (using Israel Standard Time, IST) where air raid sirens or red alerts are triggered in any part of Israel by missiles or drones launched directly from Iranian territory.
- Otherwise, those months will resolve to NO.
- For the purposes of this market:
- "Sirens" refers to official alerts (Tzeva Adom / Red Alert) or air raid sirens issued by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Home Front Command (Pikud HaOref).
- "Caused by Iranian missiles" requires that the projectiles (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or explosive UAVs/drones) were launched directly from Iranian soil.