Will the US have 5 consecutive days of active military operations in Venezuela at any point in 2026?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffLatin America3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 77.5%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète3 janv. 26, 20:56 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In which month(s) will there be at least 3 consecutive days with sirens in Israel caused by Iranian missiles?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia conduct military operations in any another country against ISIS-K before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsConsecutive days of average temperature in San Diego above 90°F - week of Sep 7, 2026
KalshiConsecutive days of average temperature in Las Vegas above 90°F - week of Sep 7, 2026
KalshiConsecutive days of average temperature in San Antonio above 90°F - week of Sep 7, 2026
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if there are 5 straight days of active military operations.
- Resolves in the spirit of the question: the intent of this question is to gauge whether the conflict will escalate beyond sporadic brief (1 night) operations into a more prolonged conflict.
- Things like airstrikes, deployments of ground forces and vehicles who are firing live ammunition, raids on facilities, drone strikes, etc, would count.
- Things like patrols of boats within Venezuelan waters, presence of a special forces team that isn't actively engaged in live fire, or spy planes flying overhead would NOT count.
- Please do not attempt to pedantically litigate in the comments whether some US action constitutes "active military operations".
- If there's doubt as to whether it does, it probably won't count for this question.
Marchés ouverts
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the US have 5 consecutive days of active military operations in Venezuela at any point in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 78% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the US have 5 consecutive days of active military operations in Venezuela at any point in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the US have 5 consecutive days of active military operations in Venezuela at any point in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will the US have 5 consecutive days of active military operations in Venezuela at any point in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if there are 5 straight days of active military operations.