Will the US have 5 consecutive days of active military operations in Venezuela at any point in 2026?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffAmérique latine2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.1%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 minutes
3 janv. 26, 20:56 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US Treasury issue a new General License authorizing broad oil operations in Venezuela in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn which month(s) will there be at least 3 consecutive days with sirens in Israel caused by Iranian missiles?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia conduct military operations in Afghanistan against ISIS-K before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
PolymarketUS military action against Cuba by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if there are 5 straight days of active military operations.
- Resolves in the spirit of the question: the intent of this question is to gauge whether the conflict will escalate beyond sporadic brief (1 night) operations into a more prolonged conflict.
- Things like airstrikes, deployments of ground forces and vehicles who are firing live ammunition, raids on facilities, drone strikes, etc, would count.
- Things like patrols of boats within Venezuelan waters, presence of a special forces team that isn't actively engaged in live fire, or spy planes flying overhead would NOT count.
- Please do not attempt to pedantically litigate in the comments whether some US action constitutes "active military operations".
- If there's doubt as to whether it does, it probably won't count for this question.