Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.9%
Prévisionnistes
98
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète3 janv. 26, 03:16 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
PolymarketIf Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsManifold thinks the Iranian regime is in a stronger position on the anniversary of the start of Operation Epic Fury
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
LimitlessRègles
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran is overthrown or ceases to exist as the governing authority of Iran by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution requires a change in the fundamental structure of state power—either through popular uprising, military coup, or other means—resulting in the end of clerical rule under the current system.
- The market resolves NO if the Islamic Republic remains the de facto governing authority at year-end, regardless of internal instability, leadership changes within the system, or concessions made to protesters.
- Mass demonstrations erupted across Iran beginning December 28, 2025, initially sparked by frustration over skyrocketing inflation, rising food prices, and severe depreciation of the Iranian rial, but quickly evolved into a broader movement demanding an end to the Islamic Republic's rule.
- The country's rial currency lost nearly half its value against the dollar in 2025, with inflation standing at about 50 percent in December.