Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 88.7%
Prévisionnistes
104
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
11 mars 26, 20:32 UTC12 mars 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Iran strike US military base at least once before November?
Manifold MarketsBetween Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US civilians be killed on US soil by enemy action?
Manifold MarketsBetween Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US citizens be killed by US military members on US soil?
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
PolymarketRègles
On March 11, 2026, ABC News reported that the FBI warned California police departments that Iran aspired to conduct a surprise drone attack against targets on the US West Coast in retaliation for American strikes against Iran. https://abcnews.com/US/fbi-warns-iran-aspired-attack-california-drones-retaliation/story?id=130973820
- This market resolves YES if, by March 11, 2027 (11:59 PM ET), at least one attack meeting all of the following conditions has occurred:
- The attack took place within the 50 US states or Washington, DC.
- Attacks on US territories, embassies, military bases abroad, or ships at sea do not count.
- The attack involved a physical method capable of causing death — including but not limited to firearms, explosives, edged weapons, vehicles used as weapons, or weaponized drones/autonomous systems.
- The attack does not need to successfully kill anyone, but the method must be plausibly capable of doing so.