Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 88.3%
Prévisionnistes
102
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète11 mars 26, 20:32 UTC12 mars 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Iran strike US military base at least once in September?
Manifold MarketsBetween Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US civilians be killed on US soil by enemy action?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRègles
On March 11, 2026, ABC News reported that the FBI warned California police departments that Iran aspired to conduct a surprise drone attack against targets on the US West Coast in retaliation for American strikes against Iran. https://abcnews.com/US/fbi-warns-iran-aspired-attack-california-drones-retaliation/story?id=130973820
- This market resolves YES if, by March 11, 2027 (11:59 PM ET), at least one attack meeting all of the following conditions has occurred:
- The attack took place within the 50 US states or Washington, DC.
- Attacks on US territories, embassies, military bases abroad, or ships at sea do not count.
- The attack involved a physical method capable of causing death — including but not limited to firearms, explosives, edged weapons, vehicles used as weapons, or weaponized drones/autonomous systems.
- The attack does not need to successfully kill anyone, but the method must be plausibly capable of doing so.
Marchés ouverts
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.6pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 25,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 695 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Volume total
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Volume total
- 6,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 107,6 k €
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Volume total
- 1,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 104,5 k €
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Iran strike US soil this year? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Iran strike US soil this year? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Iran strike US soil this year? doit être résolu le 12 mars 2027.
- Comment Will Iran strike US soil this year? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : On March 11, 2026, ABC News reported that the FBI warned California police departments that Iran aspired to conduct a surprise drone attack against targets on the US West Coast in retaliation for American strikes against Iran. https://abcnews.com/US/fbi-warns-iran-aspired-attack-california-drones-retaliation/story?id=130973820