Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 50.3%
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète23 juil. 26, 16:32 UTC31 déc. 31, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In what year will NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch?
Manifold MarketsWill the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope be renamed before the end of Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWill NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the creator's self-reported belief.
- It will resolve to YES if scientific results from the Euclid space telescope lower the creator's credence in the standard model of cosmology ($\Lambda$CDM).
- It will resolve to NO if the creator's credence is unchanged or increased.
- The Euclid space telescope, launched by the European Space Agency (ESA) in July 2023, is designed to map the time evolution history of the universe and investigate the properties of dark energy and dark matter.
- The observations are projected to give some critical tests of the standard model of cosmology:
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 226,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 125,2 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 108,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 50% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2031.
- Comment Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria