Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 66.2%
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39
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard29 août 23, 10:03 UTC1 janv. 60, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a functional space-based solar power plant before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill Earth have a Space Elevator before 2060?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX / xAI have a functioning space-based datacentre with 10K or more H100-class (or better) GPU's by 2032?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWho will win the new race to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves YES if the earth's total (known, published) capacity for space-based solar power exceeds 2GW, averaged over 1 hour, any time before the year 2060.
- This refers to power generated by solar panels in space being transmitted to earth and captured for terrestrial use, at the output of the rectenna/receiver.
- This can be satisfied by the sum of multiple systems across multiple nations.
- This can be satisfied by the sum total of military LEO power delivery, but only if confirmed/published by corresponding authorities.
- I anticipate (and would prefer) that this will instead be satisfied by a geostationary system intended primarily for civilian benefit.
- Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Space-based reflectors do not count.
