Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 74.9%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète29 déc. 23, 00:11 UTC1 mars 60, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2055?
Manifold MarketsWill Earth have a Space Elevator before 2065?
Manifold MarketsWill Earth have a Space Elevator before 2070?
Manifold MarketsWill a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?
KalshiEvidence of life out of Earth by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2060, Earth is equipped with an operational Space Elevator.
- This refers to a structure or a system of structures that extends from the surface of the Earth into space, allowing for the transport of goods and people to and from Earth's orbit without the use of traditional rocket propulsion.
- The Space Elevator must be capable of regular operation and able to sustain continuous movement of payloads between Earth and space.
- Questions with the same criteria:
- @/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-3192414ff7cb
- @/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-292c3a01b029
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2060? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 75% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2060? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2060? doit être résolu le 1 mars 2060.
- Comment Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2060? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2060, Earth is equipped with an operational Space Elevator.