Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 66.5%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète15 avr. 24, 16:32 UTC5 mars 45, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which of these conflicts will turn into a hot war in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNATO downs another Russian drone by which date?
PolymarketUkraine damages Kremlin with drone or missile before Russia-Ukraine war ends?
Manifold MarketsUS Military drone strike in Mexico before EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a conflict or set of conflicts have become commonly referred to as "The Drone Wars".
- At least one of these conflicts this term refers to must have occurred between January 1st 2020 and December 31st 2029.
- If no such terminology has emerged by January 1st 2045, then this question resolves as NO.
- If there is weak evidence that this term is used, but no strong evidence that it is commonplace, then this question resolves as N/A.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 55,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8 k €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will conflicts in the 2020s be called The Drone Wars? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 67% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will conflicts in the 2020s be called The Drone Wars? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will conflicts in the 2020s be called The Drone Wars? doit être résolu le 5 mars 2045.
- Comment Will conflicts in the 2020s be called The Drone Wars? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a conflict or set of conflicts have become commonly referred to as "The Drone Wars".